The Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) has been using scenario planning in health care for the past 35 years. Their work is worth your attention. If you can predict the most likely future, you can either take advantage of it or take action to shift it to something more favorable.
For that reason I was pleased to participate in a scenario planning experience with IAF last fall in an effort to predict the future of primary care. After extensive interviews with scores of big thinkers in and around health care, IAF identified the following four competing scenarios for the future of primary care: